UC12: Plume Prediction in Support of Emergency Response

Use Case Overview

Owner

Bruce Wright (Met Office)

Super Use Case

Use of Meteorology in Support of Emergency Response

Summary

This covers a range of incident types can result in the release of a potentially hazardous plume:

• Large Fire (e.g. fire at a chemical plant or oil refinery);
• Chemical Release (e.g. chemical spillage or a road traffic accident in which a hazardous substance has either escaped or ignited);
• Biological Incidents (e.g. foot & mouth, blue tongue)
• Nuclear Release (e.g. accident at nuclear poer plant);
• Volcanic Eruption (i.e. prediction of ash plume);

Covering the evolution over a wide range of timescales in support of Emergency Services to allow safe approach, plan evacuations, etc.

INSPIRE Use Case document

• INSPIRE Use Case document: Plume Forecasting In Support Of Emergency Response (Draft Version 0.3, 20 August 2010)

Identication of spatial objects

Samples data

Two examples of the NAME output format are linked below, one a time series, the other a 2D grid. NAME output format is flexible, but these two examples are representative.

• NAME Output Sample (2D Fields)

• NAME Output Sample (Time Series)

Further explanation of the sample files can be found in NAME III Output File Format

Information Types & Queries

Warning: The following sections need revising to be consistent with the updated INSPIRE Use Case document.

Information Type		Spatial Object		Data Type	Notes
High-Level	Sub-Type	Type	Dim
Incident Location	Grid coordinate	Point	0D	Float array (2)	e.g. Latitude-Longitude or National Grid coordinates
	Country map reference			Fixed format alphanumeric	e.g. GB Ordnance Survey: SX500534
	Postcode	Polygon	-		e.g. UK postcode: EX1 3PB
	Place name			String (controlled-vocabulary or free-text)	e.g. Buncefield Oil Refinery
Plume Incident Details	-	Point Feature	0D	Float array and Strings (controlled-vocabulary or free-text)	Includes Incident Location, Current Weather and site & release categorisation (e.g. Urban, Rural, Coastal; continuous, instantaneous, Fire at site) and free-form text (e.g. chemicals involved)
Weather	Current weather	Point	0D	Float array (& alphanumeric codes)	Snapshot of the current weather
	Weather sequence	PointSeries	1D		Time series showing the the evolution of the weather
Plume Forecast of Relevant Meteorological Parameters	-	Point	0D	Float array & free-text	Current Weather, details of plume behaviour and changes during the valid period
Hazard Sector	-	Point Feature	0D	Single letter array (2 or 3)	e.g. B, C, D
Plume at Risk Map	Plume at Risk Map	Grid	2D	Float array (2d)	Snapshot the plume extent, defined by one or more pollutant contentration thresholds
		Polygon	-	Float array (1d)
	Plume at Risk Map sequence	GridSeries	3D	Float array (3d)	Animation or seqence of maps of plume extent, defined by one or more pollutant contentration thresholds
		PolygonSeries	-	Float array (2d)
Plume Origin Prediction	-	Grid	2D	Float array of probabilities	Each cell identifies the likelihood of a plume originating with the area of the cell
High-resolution post-processed model analysis/forecast	-	Grid	2D	Float array
			3D
		GridSeries	3D
			4D

Query Types

Work in progress

Point Extraction

Selection of data at a point for a single time or time series (Point, _PointSeries _; 0 or 1D) from a grid or time series of grids (_Grid or GridSeries; 2,3 or 4D)

Polygon Identification

Definition of a polygon or series of polygons based on threshold boundaries from a grid or time series of grids (Grid or GridSeries; 2,3 or 4D).

Incident Location

Incident locations can be expressed in a number of ways, depending on where the location is (e.g. UK or abroad, urban or rural), and reporting preferences; the main types are:

• Place name (e.g. Buncefield Oil Refinery)
• Postcode (e.g. UK postcode: EX1 3PB)
• Country map grid reference (e.g. GB Ordnance Survey: SX500534)
• Grid coordinates (e.g. Latitude-Longitude or National Grid coordinates)

These are all intended to convene point-based locations, but some actually define polygons in which the incident location is.

Current Weather

Point, _PointSeries _ (0 or 1D)

For a single time, providing a 'snapshot' of the current weather at a point or as a time series showing the the evolution of the weather at a point.

Plume Incident Details

Point Feature (0D)

Incident Location, Current Weather and site & release categorisation (e.g. Urban, Rural, Coastal; continuous, instantaneous, Fire at site) and free-form text (e.g. chemicals involved)

Hazard Sector*

Point Feature (0D

Two or three letters identifying Hazard Sectors at a point.

Plume Forecast of Relevant Meteorological Parameters

Point; 0D

Current Weather with free-text details of plume behaviour and changes during the valid period

High-resolution post-processed model analysis/forecast

Grid or GridSeries (2,3 or 4D)

2 or 3D spatial grids, possibly over a series of times.

Plume at Risk Map

Grid, GridSeries (2 or 3D) OR Polygon, PolygonSeries

Identifies the plume extent, defined by one or more pollutant contentration thresholds, either in the form of thresholded raster for a fixed time or time series or as a polygon or series of polygons, defining the boundaries of the pollutant contentration at one or more thresholds and one of more times.

Plume Origin Prediction

Grid (2D)

Each cell identifies the likelihood of a plume originating with the area of the cell; most cells will have a zero probability.

Plume Incident Details

Point Feature (0D)

Incident Location, Current Weather and site & release categorisation (e.g. Urban, Rural, Coastal; continuous, instantaneous, Fire at site) and free-form text (e.g. chemicals involved)

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-- BruceWright - 25 Aug 2010