Use-case: climate impact assessment for economic development in sub-saharan Africa

An economic development project has been proposed for a region in sub-sarahan Africa.

The subject of climate-change is high on the agenda for investors. They are keen to understand the potential impact from climate change over the next 10- to 20-years that may affect the region. In particular, concerns have been raised over so-called 'climate security' caused by water stress. As climate change progresses it is likely to have dramatic affects on the supply of water. In some areas it may increase, for example at higher latitudes, but water-stressed areas in the mid-latitudes are expected to face a reduction in available water.

The economic development project commissions an assessment of climate-change induced water stress within the region. The research institute responsible to undertaking the assessment will seek to combine information from multiple sources, including climate-models, demographics, population census, water usage, hydrology etc. [NEED MORE INFORMATION HERE]

However, a second issue arises for the project: it is impossible to obtain adequate, affordable insurance for the enterprise. Due to insufficient numbers of historical weather observations that are required as input to their financial & loss modeling techniques, the re-insurers have refused to underwrite risks in that area.

Once again, the economic development project seeks to mitigate this challenge by commissioning research. On this occasion, the research institute identifies that the requirements for information input to the insurance financial and loss models are long-term climatological records for a set of locations throughout the region. It appears that a climate record covering the last 30-years will suffice. [THIS IS MY HYPOTHESIS & PROBABLY LACKS ANY REAL SUBSTANCE - MORE INFORMATION HERE WOULD BE APPRECIATED]

The research institute will use a NWP model climatic downscaling tool, undertaking two nested mesoscale re-analyses at medium (45 km) high (15 km) resolutions. The medium resolution model will be nested within boundary conditions provided by the global reanalysis (ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR) & by the global atmospheric-ocean general circulation model (ECHO-G)*. The re-analysis will cover the period from 1980 - 2009.

[* information borrowed from a similar undertaking 'Mesoscale meteorological reanalysis over the Iberian Peninsula' - source: http://www.ecmwf.int/about//special_projects/saenz_mesoscale_meteor_reanalysis/index.html]

The high-resolution reanalysis will be down-scaled further through the use of a site-specific model in order to create the long-period climate records required for the financial & loss models.